RoPE score, PFO and CS

Thaler DE, Ruthazer R, Weimar C., et al.  Recurrent stroke predictors differ in medically treated patients with pathogenic v. other PFO's.  Neurology 2014; 83: 221-226.

 

The RoPE score, "Risk of Paradoxical Embolism" score estimates the probability that a PFO discovered in a cryptogenic stroke (CS) patient is incidental or pathogenic, based on Bayes theorem.  Patients with high RoPE score (younger, no vascular risk factors, and a superficial infarct) are more likely to have pathogenic PFO's while patients with low RoPE scores (older, vascular risk factors) are probably incidental.  Authors hypothesized that predictors of recurrent stroke should differ among high and low RoPE score patients and PFO characteristics should be les important in low RoPE score individuals. 

 

Risk factors for recurrence with 1-2.2 yrs of followup  included LOW RoPE scores (one year followup, 7 v. 4 %; two year followup 10 v. 5 %) with 4/5 recurrences being in low score subgroup 

 

Patients with TIA had more recurrent events (HR 1.69) but there was no interaction with RoPE score.

 

Variable associated with risk in low RoPE group include older age, those treated with antiplatelet drugs after initial event.

Variables associated with recurrence in highRoPE score group include history of stroke or TIA, hypermobile interatrial septum, and a small shunt, but not shunt at rest. 

 

Comment of blogger

The article confirms / validates the RoPE score to some extent.  However, the point of closure is to prevent lifetime risk of paradoxical embolus, not 2 year risk.  As such, I am skeptical of the claim that risk of recurrence is lower in high RoPE score group

DJ